About

Our Mission

Our mission is to explore and develop methods of improving the utility of space weather forecasts to support research, operations, and enthusiasts.

What We Do

We use data assimilation and ensemble forecasting methods to produce probabilistic solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasts that have well-defined and quantified uncertainties. Data assimilation methods use observational data to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty in a forecast. Ensemble methods enable us to both produce probabilistic forecasts and to quantify the forecast uncertainty for either a single forecast model or a combination of forecast models.

These techniques are needed because observational limitations currently cause large uncertainties in space weather forecasts; this is particularly so for forecasting the CMEs that cause the most severe space weather. These large uncertainties make it harder to have confidence in a forecast. In turn, this makes it harder to use a forecast to support decisions that depend on space weather; this could be as serious as predicting disruptions to our energy and communications infrastructure; or as exciting as deciding to make an expedition to see the aurora.

The Team

Core Team

Contributors